Max Verstappen could win the Formula 1 World Championship for the fourth time at the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix. Here are all of the F1 title permutations!
Header Image: © Andrew Balfour
With three Grands Prix and one Sprint remaining in the 2024 season, Max Verstappen has a 62 point lead in the Drivers’ Championship. His current advantage means that, for the first time this season, the next race is a potential title-decider.
If Verstappen were to win the title in Las Vegas, he would be the first driver to win the World Championship there since Keke Rosberg in 1982 as well as the first to win the title in the United States since Lewis Hamilton at the 2019 United States Grand Prix.
How does the Drivers’ Championship look ahead of the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen’s unexpected victory from 17th on the grid at the 2024 Sao Paulo Grand Prix – a race for which title rival Lando Norris started from pole position – means that the Dutchman is now within touching distance of a fourth successive championship win.
After the 2024 Sao Paulo Grand Prix, Verstappen and Norris are now the only drivers who have a mathematical chance of being crowned the 2024 Formula 1 World Champion. Here’s how the standings look heading into the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix:
| Driver | Team | Points | Wins | Poles | Fastest Laps | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 393 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| 2 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 331 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 3 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 307 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 262 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Carlos Sainz | Ferrari | 244 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | George Russell | Mercedes | 192 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 7 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 190 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull | 151 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Nico Hulkenberg | Haas | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Yuki Tsunoda | RB | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Alex Albon | Williams | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Daniel Ricciardo | RB | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Oliver Bearman | Ferrari / Haas | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Franco Colapinto | Williams | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Liam Lawson | RB | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Zhou Guanyu | Sauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Logan Sargeant | Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Valtteri Bottas | Sauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How many points are still on offer in 2024?
There are three Grands Prix (Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi) plus a single Sprint (in Qatar) remaining in the 2024 Formula 1 season. There are 25 points on offer for a Grand Prix win, an additional point for the fastest lap in a Grand Prix and 8 points for the win in a Sprint.
That means that there are a maximum of 86 points available across the remainder of the 2024 season.
How can Verstappen win the title at the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
For Max Verstappen, the easiest way to secure the title at the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix is to finish ahead of title rival Lando Norris. If he does so, he will be crowned World Champion once again regardless of where Norris finishes.
If Verstappen wins the race, he will win the World Championship regardless of where Norris finishes. Meanwhile if Norris finishes any lower than ninth, Verstappen is World Champion regardless of where he finishes.
There are plenty of scenarios in which Verstappen can still win the title in Las Vegas even if Norris finishes ahead of him.
Here are the title permutations in full:
- If Verstappen finishes ahead of Norris, Verstappen is World Champion
- If Verstappen wins the race, Verstappen is World Champion
- If Norris finishes 2nd and Verstappen finishes 3rd with the fastest lap, Verstappen is World Champion
- If Norris finishes 3rd and Verstappen finishes 4th with the fastest lap, Verstappen is World Champion
- If Norris finishes 4th (without the fastest lap) and Verstappen finishes 5th, Verstappen is World Champion
- If Norris finishes 5th (without the fastest lap) and Verstappen finishes 6th, Verstappen is World Champion
- If Norris finishes 6th (without the fastest lap) and Verstappen finishes 7th, Verstappen is World Champion
- If Norris finishes 7th (without the fastest lap) and Verstappen finishes 8th, Verstappen is World Champion
- If Norris finishes 8th (without the fastest lap) and Verstappen finishes 9th, Verstappen is World Champion
- If Norris finishes 9th with the fastest lap and Verstappen finishes 10th, Verstappen is World Champion
- If Norris finishes 9th (without the fastest lap) or lower, Verstappen is World Champion
- If neither Verstappen or Norris score a point, Verstappen is World Champion
How slim are Norris’ chances of a first title in 2024?
It isn’t over until it’s over – but Lando Norris’ chances of winning his first title in 2024 now seem very slim. With a maximum of 86 points available, Norris has to score 62 of those to have any chance of winning the title – and that’s without Verstappen scoring any more points across the final four races.
Norris would need to outscore Verstappen by an average of around 21 points at each of the remaining three rounds – something which seems exceptionally unlikely. Even if Verstappen suffers misfortune in the remaining rounds, Norris would still have to finish in the top two every time – and win at least one Grand Prix.
Can the Constructors’ Championship be decided at the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
No, the Constructors’ Championship is not up for grabs at the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix. Things remain relatively close at the top of the team standings. A maximum of 147 points are on offer to the teams across the last three race weekends of the year.
McLaren lead the way by 36 points from Ferrari, while Red Bull are just 13 points behind the Scuderia. The fight for the Constructors’ Championship looks set to continue to the last round.
| Team | Points | Wins | Poles | Fastest Laps | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaren | 593 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 2 | Ferrari | 557 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Red Bull | 544 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| 4 | Mercedes | 382 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Aston Martin | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Alpine | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Haas | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | RB | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Williams | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Sauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Another point of interest is the battle for sixth. Alpine’s double podium result at Interlagos has put them three points ahead of Haas and five points ahead of RB as the three teams battle it out for extremely important prize money.
The F1 season concludes with a triple header of races in Las Vegas (November 23), Qatar (December 1) and Abu Dhabi (December 8).