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Your Pre-Season 2023 Formula 1 Predictions: The Results

Nicky Haldenby

Before the 2023 Formula 1 season began, I posted 20 prediction polls on the Lights Out F1 Blog twitter account about the upcoming season. Now that the season has reached its conclusion, it’s time to see how many of your predictions were correct!

1. HOW MANY RACES WILL VERSTAPPEN WIN IN 2023?

YOUR PREDICTION: 8-12

CORRECT ANSWER: 13 OR MORE

Max Verstappen completed the most dominant season in the history of Formula 1 in 2023, setting a new record for the highest percentage of Grands Prix won across a year. Just 31% of voters thought he would take more than 13 wins. His final tally of Grand Prix wins in 2023 stands at 19.

2. HOW MANY RACES WILL HAMILTON WIN IN 2023?

YOUR PREDICTION: 1 OR 2

CORRECT ANSWER: NONE

For the second year in a row, Lewis Hamilton failed to win a race in 2023. Just 30% of voters thought that the 2021 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix would remain Hamilton’s most recent win by the end of the 2023 season.

3. HOW MANY DIFFERENT DRIVERS WILL WIN A RACE IN 2023?

YOUR PREDICTION: 4 OR 5

CORRECT ANSWER: 3 OR FEWER

With Red Bull dominating the season, Carlos Sainz took the only non-Red Bull victory of the year at the 2023 Singapore Grand Prix. That made 2023 the first season since 2015 in which only three drivers secured a Grand Prix win. It’s only the seventh season in F1 history in which as few as three drivers won a Grand Prix.

4. WHAT WILL ALONSO’S BEST RESULT IN 2023 BE?

YOUR PREDICTION: 2ND OR 3RD

CORRECT ANSWER: 2ND OR 3RD

Fernando Alonso enjoyed his best Formula 1 season since 2013 in 2023, recording eight podium finishes across the year, which saw him become the latest inductee to Formula 1’s 100 Podium Club. Despite all the podiums, the 2013 Spanish Grand Prix remains Alonso’s most recent victory.

5. HOW MANY DRIVERS WILL FINISH ON THE PODIUM IN 2023?

YOUR PREDICTION: 8

CORRECT ANSWER: 9 OR MORE

In 2022, Lando Norris was the only driver outside of the top three teams (Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes) to finish in the top three. In 2023, a total of 11 drivers finished on the podium at least once.

All six drivers from the aforementioned top teams finished on the podium, as did both McLaren drivers, both Alpine drivers and Fernando Alonso.

6. WHO WILL OUT-QUALIFY THEIR TEAM-MATE MOST REGULARLY – VERSTAPPEN, ALONSO, NORRIS OR ALBON?

YOUR PREDICTION: ALONSO

CORRECT ANSWER: ALBON

Alex Albon out-qualified Logan Sargeant at every race in 2023, becoming the first driver to out-qualify their team-mate at every round since Max Verstappen did so against Albon at Red Bull in 2020.

Of the others, Fernando Alonso – who won the poll – was out-qualified by Lance Stroll three times, Lando Norris was out-qualified six times by rookie team-mate Oscar Piastri and Sergio Perez out-qualified Max Verstappen twice.

7. HOW MANY DRIVERS WILL FAIL TO QUALIFY IN THE TOP TEN AT ANY RACE?

YOUR PREDICTION: 3 OR MORE

CORRECT ANSWER: 1*

Every driver who competed at every round in 2023 reached Q3 at least once during the year. The only driver who did not qualify in the top ten at any race this year was Nyck de Vries, who competed in the first half of the season with AlphaTauri. Both drivers who replaced him at the team – Daniel Ricciardo and Liam Lawson – were able to reach Q3.

8. WILL ANY DRIVER TAKE A MAIDEN WIN OR POLE IN 2023?

YOUR PREDICTION: YES

CORRECT ANSWER: NO

No new drivers added their name to Formula 1’s pole position or Grand Prix winners list in 2023, though Oscar Piastri did take pole and win the Sprint at the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix.

2023 is the first season with no new winners or polesitters since 2018.

9. HOW MANY POINTS WILL PIASTRI SCORE IN HIS ROOKIE SEASON?

YOUR PREDICTION: 0-30 POINTS

CORRECT ANSWER: 61-99 POINTS

Oscar Piastri had the most successful rookie season since Lewis Hamilton in 2007, scoring 97 points across the season – which included two podium finishes and a Sprint victory at the Qatar Grand Prix. Although the points system changed in 2010, his tally of points is the largest ever scored by a rookie in Formula 1 history.

10. WHAT PERCENTAGE OF ALPHATAURI’S POINTS WILL BE SCORED BY DE VRIES?

YOUR PREDICTION: 51-75%

CORRECT ANSWER: 0-25%

Of the 22 drivers who raced in 2023, Nyck De Vries was the only one not to score a point. His best result was 12th place, recorded at the Monaco Grand Prix.

11. HOW MANY POINTS WILL WILLIAMS SCORE IN 2023?

YOUR PREDICTION: 6-15 POINTS

CORRECT ANSWER: 16-30 POINTS

Williams scored 28 points across the 2023 season – with all but one of those points being scored by Alex Albon. It saw them finish in the top seven in the Constructors’ Championship for the first time since 2017.

12. WILL SPA BE ON THE 2024 F1 CALENDAR?

YOUR PREDICTION: YES

CORRECT ANSWER: YES

Yes, Spa will be on the calendar in 2024! Formula 1 confirmed in October that the Belgian Grand Prix would remain on the schedule with a new single-year contract extension.

13. WILL ANY NEW RACES BE ADDED TO THE 2024 CALENDAR?

YOUR PREDICTION: YES

CORRECT ANSWER: NO

There are no new events on the 2024 Formula 1 calendar but the Chinese Grand Prix is expected to make its comeback after four seasons off the schedule. The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix will also return in 2024 after the 2023 race was cancelled due to local flooding.

14. WILL MERCEDES, FERRARI AND RED BULL KEEP THE SAME DRIVER LINE-UPS IN 2024?

YOUR PREDICTION: NO

CORRECT ANSWER: YES

Despite heavy speculation over Sergio Perez’s future at Red Bull, all three top teams will be maintaining the same driver line-ups as in 2023. In fact, all ten teams are expected to start next season with the same drivers that they ended 2023 with.

15. WILL ANY DRIVER BE DISQUALIFIED FROM A RACE IN 2023?

YOUR PREDICTION: NO

CORRECT ANSWER: YES

Two drivers were disqualified from a Grand Prix in 2023. Both Lewis Hamilton – who finished second – and Charles Leclerc – who finished sixth – were disqualified from the United States Grand Prix at Circuit of The Americas after their cars failed post race checks.

16. HOW MANY TIMES WILL THE FASTEST SPRINT QUALIFIER WIN THE SPRINT?

YOUR PREDICTION: 5 OR 4 TIMES

CORRECT ANSWER: 5 OR 4 TIMES

Admittedly, this question was posed before the new Sprint Shootout format was announced for 2023. Originally, this question was intended to mean ‘how many times will the Sprint polesitter win the Sprint?’ In that case, the Sprint polesitter won all but two of the six Sprint events this year. The exceptions were Charles Leclerc in Azerbaijan and Lando Norris at Interlagos.

17. ASIDE FROM RED BULL, FERRARI OR MERCEDES, WHICH TEAM WILL FINISH HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP?

YOUR PREDICTION: ASTON MARTIN

CORRECT ANSWER: McLAREN

Aston Martin led the way in the battle to be best of the rest for some time in 2023, even looking like they could finish ahead of one of the big three teams at the beginning of the year.

However, while Aston Martin dropped back, McLaren’s impressive mid-season turnaround saw them rocket up the standings and they ended the season fourth in the standings, 22 points clear of Aston Martin.

18. WILL THE TITLE BE DECIDED AT THE LAST RACE OF THE SEASON?

YOUR PREDICTION: NO

CORRECT ANSWER: NO

Not this year. Max Verstappen won the title with six Grands Prix remaining as he took his third championship win during the Sprint at the Qatar Grand Prix. It’s only the second time that a driver has won the title with six races remaining, after Michael Schumacher in 2002.

19. WHO WILL WIN THE CONSTRUCTORS’ CHAMPIONSHIP?

YOUR PREDICTION: RED BULL

CORRECT ANSWER: RED BULL

Almost 70%of voters expected Red Bull to win their sixth title in 2023, though whether anyone expected them to do so with such dominance is debatable. The team amassed the most points ever for a constructor in a single and took the honours by the largest ever points margin.

20. WHO WILL BE THE 2023 FORMULA 1 WORLD CHAMPION?

YOUR PREDICTION: MAX VERSTAPPEN

CORRECT ANSWER: MAX VERSTAPPEN

The majority of responses to this question were in favour of Max Verstappen being the driver to lift the championship trophy in 2023. After his 2023 season, it seems likely that he’ll be the most popular answer in 2024 too!

How many of this year’s pre-season prediction polls did you get correct? Leave a comment below!

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